Inequality in Contemporary American Society
Professor Timothy Shortell
www.shortell.org/courseserve

More on Hypothesis Testing

Consult the diagram below for additional instruction on the process of hypothesis testing, Then, read through the summary and try the practice problems. If you would like more examples after trying these, follow the link to more sample tables at the bottom of the page.

To read a crosstabulation, follow these three steps: (1) determine if the result is statistically significant; if it is, then (2) interpret the pattern in the table; if not, stop; After you interpret the pattern (if the table is reliable), think about how the independent variable, in the columns, might be related to the dependent variable, in the rows.

You can picture the process like this:

Step 1.
Compare the value of "p" for Chi-square with the conventional criterion, 0.05, or 5%.

If you are challenged by decimal numbers, here is a simple technique for comparing values. Take the value of "p" and mulitply by 1,000. To get the result, move the decimal three places to the right, adding zeros if needed. For example, if p = 0.014, we would end up with 14. If p = 0.11, we would get 110. If p = 0.0057, we would get 5.7 . Next, do the same for the criterion, 0.05. This will always result in 50. Finally, compare the modified value of p with the modified criterion. For example, for p = 0.014, we have 14 compared to 50. Since 14 is less than 50, this result would be reliable. For p = 0.11, we have 110 compared to 50. Since 110 is greater than 50, this result is not reliable. For p = 0.0057, we have 5.7 compared to 50. Since 5.7 is less than 50, this result is reliable.

Step 2.
Compare the column percents across each row. If the percents are consistently different, the independent variable is related to the dependent variable.

Consider the following table:

The percents across the "Yes" row vary from 7.6 to 21. This suggests that members of some race groups are more likely to belong to a labor union.

Step 3.
Interpret the results from a social scientific perspective.

In the example from step two, we need to consider some of the reasons why race might be related to labor union membership. This will lead us to want to look for other variables. For example, we might suggest that political view is involved. Labor unions are considered a liberal institution, and some race groups tend to be more liberal than others. Blacks tend to be more liberal than whites, and therefore, are more likely to belong to a union.

Another possibility is that some types of jobs are more likely to be unionized than others, and some races are more likely to hold those jobs. Service jobs are more likely to be unionzed than clerical jobs, and blacks and asians are more likely to have these jobs than whites.

Note that we are describing a relationship in the aggregate, not the causal relationship for any particular individuals. When we claim that blacks tend to be more liberal than whites, we are not saying that all blacks are more liberal than all whites, or that any particular black is more liberal than any particular white. There are liberals, moderates and conservatives among both race groups. The pattern describes general tendencies, or probabilities, rather than particular cases.

Try This

Now, try to apply what you've learned with the following examples.


These data come from the US Census, Current Population Study, 1998.

Answer the following questions about this crosstabulation. When you've finished, click on the "How did I do?" button. If you missed any item, go back, reconsider the question, and select a new answer. Then, click on the "How did I do?" button again. Keep working until you've correctly answered each question.

1. Is the result statistically significant?
Yes
No

2. Where do you look to determine if the result is statistically significant?
If chi-square is larger than 1.0
If the column percents across the bottom and top rows are substantially different from one another.
If the total adds up to 100%
If the p value of chi-square is less than or equal to 0.05.

3. Which of the following is the best interpretation of the pattern in the table?
Union membership varies by region.
There is no relationship between union membership and region.
Most people don't belong to a union.
Workers in the Northeast are more likely to be unionized than workers in other regions, particularly the South.

4. Which is the suspected causal variable?
Region
Union Membership
chi-square
Northeast

5. The pattern in the table _____.
proves that region is related to union membership.
demonstrates a social pattern.
explains the union membership of any particular worker.
shows that region is not an important factor explaining union membership.

Score =

Number of Tries =

You missed question(s):

When you've correctly answered the questions for the first crosstabulation, try this one:


These data come from the US Census, Current Population Study, 1998.

1. Is the result statistically significant?
Yes
No

2. Is the result theoretically meaningful?
Yes
No

3. How can you determine if the result is theoretically meaningful?
The size of chi-square.
The results add up to 100%
The size of the difference in column percents across the rows.
The result is always theoretically meaningful.

4. Which of the following is the best interpretation of the pattern in the table?
There is no relationship between sector of employment and union membership.
There is a relationship between sector of employment and union membership.
Public sector workers are substantially more likely to be unionized.
Most workers do not belong to a union.

5. The number in the bottom right cell, 91.1%, indicates that _____.
about 90 percent of private sector workers are not union members
about 90 percent of all nonunion members work in the private sector
about 90 percent of all workers do not belong to a union.
there are more private sector workers than public sector workers

Score =

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